What is the New Network?

by Kevin Werbach

May 3, 2007 at 4:59 am · Filed under Supernova07

The theme for Supernova 2007 is “Defining the New Network.” What does that mean?

The basic concept is simple. Networks are central to everything significant in technology today. There are physical networks (the Internet, the telephone system, wireless links), virtual communications networks (Skype, Fon), social networks (MySpace, Facebook, LinkedIn), advertiser networks (Google AdSense), information networks (Digg, Craigslist, Wikipedia), and video content networks (YouTube, Joost), to name just a few. Not to mention networks of organizations, of systems, and of people (like the Supernova community itself).

About 15 years ago, two monumental shifts began. The personal computer went from being an isolated device for individuals to a node in a global network of networks. And the telephone went from being a dumb network endpoint to a powerful computer in its own right. These changes created pressure to restructure both the infrastructure linking all those devices, as well as the software stacks and end-user services on top of them. We take it for granted now, but it’s utterly remarkable that I can pull a mobile phone out of my pocket and speak to three billion people, or type a search query to scan the full text of billions of documents on computers around the world, or run an entire business on remote web-based tools.

So, what now?

The networks we depend on today could only take root with enough available and affordable computing power, bandwidth, and storage. Yet those networks are also the precursors for further developments. The PC and the phone were the starting points for today’s ubiquitous Internet, which is tearing apart industries like telecom, media, enterprise software, games, and retailing like (to borrow the title of a paper I once wrote) a digital tornado. If the starting point is a broadband Internet, with massive aggregation and services platforms like Google, AOL, MSN, and Yahoo!, and a host mechanisms for linking data in powerful ways, what appears now that couldn’t take hold before?

The New Network is broader than [fill-in-the-blank] 2.0, because it’s less about comparisons with the past, and more about describing the future. Developments like virtual worlds, social networks, federated digital identity systems, search engine marketing, microblogging, zombie botnets, conversational marketing, and data centers in shipping containers don’t have clear antecedents, nor are they just about user control and open standards.

To understand the New Network, we must step back and reconsider every aspect of the technology-driven world, from the physical attributes of the Internet to the ways of turning content into revenue. And, we need to challenge ourselves not to be complacent. Huge legal, economic, moral, technical, social, and strategic questions cloud the future of every corner of the technology, media, and telecom worlds. Optimism is warranted, but so is a sense of urgency to tackle the hard problems.

That is the starting point for Supernova 2007. In future posts, I’ll dive into the sessions and agenda in more detail.

For now, I welcome your comments and feedback. Is this a useful way to think about the challenges companies will face in the next several years? What other unappreciated developments do you see as part of the New Network? And what topics should we be sure to cover at the conference?

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9 Comments »

Kevin,

Connecting the next billion people to the Internet will require significant improvements in today’s typical computer, mobile and consumer electronics device user experience — especially in the already saturated markets.

The learning curve, relative to the apparent benefits, is still too steep for many people who do not have an economic barrier to being online. Human networks have existed long before technology became a part of the equation, and somehow became the focal point (instead of an enabling tool that’s inherently usable).

Perhaps cause-centric networks, where emotional connections are paramount, will be the catalyst for the next wave of evolution. Frankly, I believe that the technology-centric perspectives often miss the mark.

Broadband networks are the means to an end objective; they’re not the essential aim or the ambition that drives most people who seek their inherent benefit. Somehow this perspective tends to get lost in the “bigger bandwidth” or “faster processor” tech conference mantra.

David, thanks for your comment. Broadband networks are definitely just a means to various ends. That’s my point. The interesting questions are what happens once we can take for granted the physical network, and certain networked software/hardware infrastructures like data centers and RSS feeds.

Increasingly I find myself (and I have been an alpha adopter for now nearly 20+ years) persisting my presence and activity across a range of devices - I have a laptop and a desktop (one Mac, one Windows - soon to be Windows/Linux), I have a smartphone (windows mobile via Cingular in mid-June likely an iPhone). With any number of newer apps I am able to transition nearly seamlessly between these systems - reading one email in a thread via gmail on my cell phone, finishing reading on my desktop after arriving home.

My point is that the future of “networks’ is more than just the physical bandwidth, more than any one device (or local hub of devices) - it is the increasingly transparent nature of these devices - syncing themselves, connecting to the “cloud” and moving data on my behalf around with ease.

I do not access “traditional” media in the normal ways - no radio (no car for that matter), no tv, no longer subscribe to any newspapers (though I do still get a number of magazines, though far fewer than in years past). Instead I download selective videos, subscribe to some 60+ podcasts, and then “consume” that media on (mostly) one of my two iPods (30gb video, 512mb shuffle) or at my desktop (24″ iMac) where I mostly view videos (and the very occasional DVD). However these are still too cumbersome - I have to sync, the battery life is still poor, and I can only carry a fraction of my media collection (well over 140gb of content and growing every day).

I definitely foresee a future, probably very soon (and technically it is probably possible today) where I have simple devices with me that have access to nearly my full collection - probably with the capacity to show videos via external monitors where available - and with enough network capabilities to download and get new podcasts (or other media) as it becomes available.

As we move forward increasing the sharing of digital data can be manifested in the “real” world in an ever increasing variety of ways. Already today you can order real dolls from virtual avatars (from Second Life and I think from IMVU, not sure about Cyworld or World of Warcraft). I wouldn’t be surprised if the corner “print shop” takes on whole new capabilities in a few years (turning out items in metals, woods, and various biodegradable/recycled plastics based on digital plans shared/bought in a variety of ways.

At that point the “networks” - such as virtual worlds - gain a utility beyond just social spaces (or “virtual” commerce/entertainment) they could become examples of how to prototype and “play” with things that could without much effort become “real”. In the “1st world” this will be more than a novelty - in the context of the whole world it could be revolutionary (and if you think DRM/piracy battles are fierce now - just wait, they likely could get much much worse)

I also see a trend where better integration of technology and understanding of networks across the economy is making it possible to support greater diversity. Slow Food, for example, is a growing international network of supporters who vote with their dollars in helping support local food artisans. In Turin just recently a new supermarket opened with a degree of support from Slow Food. Here in the US even Walmart is starting (albeit slowly) to source from a larger number of sources and increasingly from local sources. The ability for even relatively smaller producers to integrate into and work with larger companies - via technology - may be a way forward to a more economically diverse world. Abebooks offers 1000’s of independent bookstores across the globe a very successful way to compete against the Amazon.coms and Borders/Barnes & Noble superstores. Again via the ubiquity of network connectivity and technical integration - and not requiring highly costly or complex systems to do so.

In the developing world, I would anticipate that we’ll see many very innovative advances predicated on connectivity via cell phones to spark them. Perhaps with access devices such as the OLPC or other low cost computers being developed as a supplement (but even “cheap” modern cell phones have remarkable capabilities for connectivity).

We may already be at a point in history where well over 1/3 of the population of the planet has a phone (some 2B cell phones is number often thrown around) and I imagine this will only continue to increase. This renders a much more level access to each other - and the rest of the world than most of the planet has known ever before. We still don’t know how to find each other or how best to reach out and connect - but we will keep learning - and nearly all humans talk (while many still do not read).

Exciting times indeed.

Shannon

[...] I’m really looking forward to getting my teeth into the issues raised by this year’s Supernova - I grapple daily with many of them. My jobs as a social software consultant wouldn’t be possible without the networks that Kevin mentions in his post What is the New Network?. Social networks, virtual communications networks and information networks shape my both my personal and professional worlds. [...]

[...] One notable comment I have left recently is at the ConversationHub which is the recently launched blog for Supernova - with guest posts by a bunch of really smart people who are all participating in Supernova this year. I am looking forward to my own participation at Supernova and at the planned open space the day before Supernova which many friends of mine are organizing and helping to facilitate. [...]

[...] When Kevin Werbach says here that he sees the New Network as a “broader concept than [fill-in-the-blank] 2.0, because it’s less about comparisons with the past, and more about describing the future,” what I read there is that [fill-in-the-blank] 2.0 may perhaps be more about technology upgardes and the New Network may be more about the value proposition for those in the network. Says Kevin, “If the starting point is a broadband Internet, with massive aggregation and services platforms like Google, AOL, MSN, and Yahoo!, and a host mechanisms for linking data in powerful ways, what appears now that couldn’t take hold before?” [...]

[...] I was very fortunate to have a few hours to go and spend time with Kevin Wehrbach and his energized crowd at Supernova 2007. For an example of the level of quality conversation going on there, read this theme blog post. The crowd was FULL of fascinating people, energized and full of excitement. [...]

http://www.wangr.com/qianjin/forum/viewtopic.php?p=12728
http://shakatura.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4543

very interesting, but I don’t agree with you
Idetrorce

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